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The Market Place This Winter

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The Market Place This Winter

The continued uncertainty surrounding the Brexit decision is impacting on buyer confidence and with a changing timetable the activity levels have fluctuated a great deal this year, outside of normal seasonal trends. The impact is felt mostly in the upper sector of the sales market (£600,000 and above), rental property is letting as usual, and the middle to lower end of the local market is faring well with plenty of first-time buyers still entering the market (£200 to £600,000).

I shall provide you with some of the statics being circulated:

  • National average sale figures are up 0.4% on last year (Nationwide data published in October 2019)
  • Average prices rose just £800 in the year to October 2019, while in the year to October 2016 they rose by £9,100 (Nationwide data published in October 2019)
  • Prices are expected to drop by between 6% an 20% if we see a no-deal Brexit (prediction from KPMG)
  • The Office of Budget Responsibility predicted a price drop of 10% by mid-2021 if we see a no-deal Brexit
  • The pound reached a decade low of €1.07 against the Euro in August 2019

Of course, depending on which figures you look at you’ll see a slightly different picture. The figures vary month on month. We saw an increase in sales in August and a decline in September, the opposite of the usual trend. Since the decision was again delayed, from the end of October, the activity levels have increased. Having said this, the uncertainty remains and has cause for properties to remain on the market for longer than we would expect.

What will January bring?

With decision due at the end of January, some vendors will plan to list their homes after the decision, meaning a quieter month than normal. The decision will, of course, dictate whether the market improves in February or not.

The main oversight we see from vendors, is that they will all act together. Meaning, we expect a huge influx of new properties in February. The choice to delay listing could be poor one if they find they have several competing properties listed simultaneously. This will of course have the reverse affect to that they are hoping for. Greater buyer choice generally leads to lower sale prices. Therefore, bucking the trend and listing at a time when few other houses are available could prove more lucrative.

Jameson and Partners are offering 20% off our fees for any properties listed before Christmas and 10% off for those listed from January to the end of February.